Rainfall more likely to be below average for the whole month, though southern England could return average with higher pressure towards the north of the UK in the means. Temperatures likely to be above the 1981-2010 long-term average. Perhaps a more unsettled end to the month, as troughing / low pressure returns from the west. Possibility that southern areas of England could see easterly winds that could bring slightly cooler than average temperatures for a time, but low confidence on this, with generally temperatures around average with some warm days but seasonally cool to chilly nights, perhaps above average in the far north and west. But there are strong indications of a greater probability, for now, for blocking high pressure to build from the west sometime in early October - bringing more settled and fine weather for one or perhaps two weeks for large parts of the country, possibly bringing an Indian Summer, though any warmth will depend on how any blocking anticyclone positions. A low probability that the month could be unsettled and wet, like 20 October analogs used. There will be spells of unsettled weather at times, perhaps wet and windy, particularly early on in the month. Temperatures for the month likely to be slightly above the long-term 1981-2010 average, an above average second half appears likely to skew temperatures slightly above average after an average start. Troughing close to the north and low pressure may persist close to the UK into the second half of the month too so, unlike the last few months, troughing / low pressure looks more likely to dominate UK weather rather than high pressure, so rainfall should hopefully be around average overall, perhaps above average locally in the west and north. Temperatures likely to remain around average in the north, perhaps edging above average for the south. This would see a continuation of unsettled conditions to at least mid-month, perhaps with one or two ex-tropical storms caught up in the zonal flow over the Atlantic arriving near the UK too, perhaps as deep depressions. There is increasing model ensemble consensus for the upper low near the UK to merge with more large scale upper troughing extending SE from Greenland / far North Atlantic by around 8th/9th, with a more zonal west to east flow establishing, with the jet stream tracking close to southern UK. Showers or longer spells of rain likely in the first 7 days, temperatures close to average. The start of the month will see an increasingly unsettled theme develop, with the jet stream close to the south and a slow-moving upper low parked close to Ireland during the first 5 days, perhaps slowly drifting east over the UK by day 7.
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